Ahsan Raza | Independent Technical Analyst

bearish

AUDUSD-4H

forex

2026-07-03

Active

Market Conditions

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AUDUSD APPROACHING A KEY RESISTANCE CONFLUENCE FOLLOWING BEARISH EXPANSION AT 4H

I observed a clear shift in market structure following a strong impulsive bearish move that originated after the formation of a well-defined liquidity zone. Price reacted sharply from this area, confirming the presence of strong selling pressure and initiating a downside expansion. Following the impulsive decline, the market transitioned into a corrective phase, where price began recovering from recent lows.During this phase, price developed a gradual ascending structure while consistently creating higher lows. This movement appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting that it is driven more by rebalancing and liquidity engineering than sustained bullish strength. The recovery toward higher prices indicates that the market is revisiting a significant technical area before determining its next directional move.Currently, price is approaching a previously established resistance confluence consisting of a Major Liquidity Zone, S.R Interchange, and an Inner Resistance region. This area is significant as it represents the origin of the last strong bearish expansion, making it a high-probability reaction point. The approach toward this zone lacks strong impulsive conviction and appears relatively controlled, which often precedes a reaction rather than continuation.Speculative Outlook: Price is now entering a critical resistance confluence, making this an important decision point for the market. If bearish candlestick patterns or rejection behavior develops within this region, it would indicate that sellers are stepping back in, potentially leading to another downside move toward lower support.There is also a possibility of a liquidity grab above the resistance zone, where price briefly breaks into the Inner Resistance region, captures resting buy-side liquidity, and then reverses to the downside. Such a scenario would further strengthen the bearish bias.However, if price manages to sustain above the resistance confluence with strong impulsive bullish candles, it would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and suggest a shift toward continuation. Until that confirmation appears, the current structure favors a bearish reaction from this key resistance region.

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE-RESEARCH ONLY.